The huge Shtokman gas field in the Barents Sea will definitely be developed, but not according to SDAG’s official schedule. The final investment decision is planned to be taken by the three shareholders - Gazprom, Total and Statoil - in March 2011. No such decision will be done at that time.

The most likely outcome will be a new postponement. Statoil and Total will then withdraw from the consortium, but not from Russia. SDAG is an expensive shop to run, and Statoil will probably spend their share of millions of USD on other projects in the Arctic - either on Norwegian or Russian side.

The split-up will be made on amicable terms. Gazprom is also not too eager to develop this vastly complex and expensive gas field under the ruling market situation, but they want to continue the collaboration with its partners, but in other projects.

Perhaps we will see the first Shtokman gas coming onshore in 2025? We’ll have to wait and see...